2010年10月23日星期六

國運1909

John Schrecher在〈帝國主義和中國民族主義︰德國在山東〉一書就觀察到“主權”最早在中國於一八六零年出現,而往往是在最弱的時候中國提得最多(為一九零九年即八國聯軍後九年,跟共和革命只有兩年)。

國運1909作者澳洲華裔的雪洱就選了這個年頭做這本書是引子。1908年慈禧太后﹑光緒皇帝駕崩,在常識中﹑在大家的歷史知識的認知中,大清的國運已經去到荼蘼。究竟1909年會否和1949年﹑1979年在歷史長流中,起了一樣大的作用?

讀歷史的人知道歷史沒有返轉頭,只能夠學習歷史﹑讓人汲取經驗,避開未來的可能遇到的挫折。有些學者負面的指學習歷史,是路徑依賴,會令國家陷入歷史的循環,因為大家學習同一版本的歷史,大家對時局的基本邏輯﹑分析會如出一徹。

雪洱做的可能就是突破這個中國人的思想瓶頸,時興平反,國運1909為極晚清的一干十九世紀八十後來一個平反。沒有操守的西方傳媒的渲染﹑被稱為恐怖份子的革命黨人的活動,妖魔化了晚清對中國現代化的貢獻。自 “走向共和”採納劍橋中國史的史觀,褒李鴻章﹑貶國父孫中山,似乎晚清史會是史學界的新潮了。雪洱嘗試平反慈禧太后﹑隆裕太后﹑八十後攝政王載灃。載灃在極右洋務派﹑極左類義和團派甚至在革命黨人中極力得到大清國的全民共識及主流話語體系的主旋律,摒棄”中學為體﹑西學為用”,因為多次的軍事挫折,證實此模式不行。政治改革﹑憲政是唯一的出路。不少憲政學者都寫過大清搞憲政的認真的,作者雪洱就道“1909年,開始的的宣統新朝,在統治者並非做作的努力下,開始了擴大政治基礎﹑權力分享的艱難歷程。後世無可否認,哪個年代所能達到的政治開明與寬容,都是後世人望塵難及”。

我會這樣評說,只怪可惜一切來得太少﹑來得太遲。

星島日報  每日雜誌  中國點點點 2010-10-20

2010年10月9日星期六

中日結盟?可惜人類宿醉的時候往往比清醒的時候長得多.....








中日結盟?﹗

大家沒有眼花中國和日本是應該結盟,從東亞戰略及地緣政治﹑歷史問題﹑文化﹑意識形態等客觀因素,都說明北京和東京是天生的政治﹑經濟﹑軍事的好搭擋。在冷戰已經結束近廿年﹑二次大戰結束近四分三個世紀,兩國的交戰歷史不應該成為兩個東亞大國在廿一世紀謀求長遠發展的羈絆。

東亞戰略及地緣政治

中華民族在十八世紀開始,外敵主要是海上而來,從倭寇﹑英人﹑八國聯軍﹑以至日本皇軍甚至現時的美國。日本﹑韓國﹑台灣都是中國近代外敵進入中國內陸的不沉航空母艦。在現時的戰略格局,要中部崛起﹑西部開發,一定要穩住東部沿海地區,日韓台海域再加上南海緊張,對中國海防有沉重負擔。就算中國國庫和老百姓能承擔三支航空母艦群,拱衛京津﹑滬寧﹑港地區,要守的代價同效益似乎不成比例,莫講還要兼顧台灣﹑東海﹑南沙﹑西沙。在現時美國海軍再加上日本的海空實力,藍海戰略幾成泡影,代價亦相當大。當年李鴻章海防派和左宗棠的彊防派的辯論,結果是中法﹑中日海戰,大清大敗而回,反觀彊防派起碼穩住了中國的大後方﹑打壓了沙俄﹑英國對彊藏的野心,有分析指今日中國版圖仍然是一張塊海棠葉,中國人要多謝左宗棠。況且,從現實政治出發,東亞周邊的真正朋友,大家心知肚明,平壤有反骨﹑河內對著幹﹑日韓菲有美國撐腰﹑還有不知何時統一的台灣地區。

歷史問題

歷史問題指大國崛起的歷史,Paul Kennedy看大國崛起分析了荷蘭﹑英國衰亡,是沒有龐大的腹地讓國家經濟以至軍事進一步發展,龐大的國土讓國家有軍事布局有迴旋餘地,看觀抗日時國民政府在重慶苟延殘喘,亦可以敗部復活。再者,近百年的西方稱霸的歷史,更說明中日無條件不結盟,Andrew Roberts 分析英語世界下的美英結盟的任何一場戰爭,從未輸過,這個是實證。歷史亦證明國際政治沒有永遠敵人,最好的例子是美英;英國是美國前宗主國,唯一曾經佔領華盛頓﹑火燒國會﹑白宮既不是德國人﹑日本人或者蘇聯人,而是英國人(1814),兩國理應有深仇大恨,但是經過近一世紀的和解,經歷一戰﹑二戰﹑冷戰﹑兩次伊戰﹑反恐,還有其他看不到的政經﹑外交﹑情報的合作,美英仇人成為鐵桿子拍檔。現時英國不可以沒有美國(看觀1952年蘇伊士運河危機,沒有美國,英法單獨行動即時不行)。同樣,英法亦有類似的所謂歷史問題,經過不只一個世紀,而是差不多上千年的鬥爭(聖女貞德﹑拿破崙的例子可以隨手沾來),在1904年兩國簽訂友好協議,在一戰﹑二戰站在勝利的一方。

文化﹑意識形態

英國不可以沒有美國,日本不可以沒有中國(中國可以沒有日本這個朋友,但交惡則有老美支持,美國擔心的是中日大和解)。文化和意識形態上,中日其實都是東亞中心腹地起源(The East Asian Heartland)的文化,Lucian Pye指大家都是家長權威模式﹑Samuel Huntington指同屬泛儒家文明。舉一個實例,一九八九年六四後,西方向中國大陸實施制裁,大家對比一下日本和澳洲﹑日本和法國對中國實施的制裁力度和措施,大家就知道為什麼毛主席喜歡日本人。再者,從現今中國政府統治精英的想法,日本正是偽民主的良好示範,戰犯做首相﹑五五體制﹑反對派長期在野,不正合口味嗎?在最少的機會成本下達至政治民主化。在理性分析下中日應該結盟,可惜人類宿醉的時候往往比清醒的時候長得多。

(Singtao 10 October 2010)

2010年10月7日星期四

You can't handle the truth; China CAN!

“You can't handle the truth."
        Colonel Nathan in “A Few Good Man”

如果你不能夠承受真相,就不要問。當今的中國,有計﹗

2009年底一宗群眾事件,雲南省委宣傳部副部長伍皓把全國的眼球吸引到雲南。伍皓主動上網答覆網民,省委宣傳部更下發了一個通知,禁止給群眾貼上一向慣用的“不明真相”“別有用心”等標籤。類似的詞在香港七一的時候,我們都聽過。

這些辭彙給人官本位的感覺,視群眾為矛盾(希望仍然是人民內部矛盾吧)﹗。雲南省委宣傳部進一步透過建立網絡新聞發言人和媒體義務監督員等舉措,伍皓又以宣傳部官員的身份,施行“新聞新政”,嘗試推動黨和政府的信息公開與透明讚。這些努力結果如何﹖先看看這宗群眾事件的來龍去脈。

二零零九年八月二十六日,雲南省陸良縣一煤礦在施工過程中與當地村民群眾發生衝突,八名村民、三名煤礦企業員工和七名公安警在衝突中受傷住院,十一輛警車被毀。事件發生後,縣委、縣政府立即啟動突發事件應急預案,處理村民問題。群眾提出的問題中,大部份得到解決。針對群眾要求每人每月補償六百元生活補助和每株莊稼五元賠償的訴求,

內地評論指陸良案例”也許會成為政府應付群體性事件的教材案例。

以民為本的執政理念,轉變了政府在處置群體性事件的慣性思維,但問題是人高皇帝遠的地方政府會否執行從來都是中國政府的結。主觀希望中國政府在處理,群眾事件會認同群眾的大部分訴求都是合理。

回說因事件”曝”得大名的伍皓,今年四月廿二日在北京人民大學演講時被學生扔總值三十大元的五毛錢紙幣。中國的進步總令人有追不上的感,這次事件,令我再次感到中國真的強大了,不是因為了國庫多了美債﹑日債,而是連我國都有Spin Doctor和敢說不的類社民連的大學生。國家真的變了。

(RTHK 07 Oct 2010/ Singtao)

Greed is Good

If Hong Kong were able to hold a referendum on the HK Basic Law,, Article 5 would be passed straight away and unanimously. Recent debates on whether Hong Kong society at large hates the wealthy (e.g. land developers) and powerful (e.g. senior officials) and the values of the late 80s, as well as the so-called “Central Value (Chungwan)”, are off the mark and out of focus. People have alleged that such debates were the result of the League of Social Democrats (LSD) and other fledgling streams of leftist ideas. Both the observation and the analysis are inaccurate. First, the LSD does not have the clout to direct such trends. Second, HK people at large are still emotionally attached to capitalist ideas and the free market. So what do we actually care about?


Capitalist System and Way of Life

Article 5 of the HK Basic Law provides that the capitalist system and the way of life shall remain unchanged. What is capitalism? Or, what is NOT capitalism? When one particular group of economic elites gain crucial advantages, become too successful, and begin to collude with one another instead of competing, capitalism can easily turn into corporatism, or to use a more progressive term, cronyism, or should we wish to use neo-Marxist terminology, hegemony. No one doubts that HK is heading in such a direction. The corporatist setting has been manifested in the parochial installation of a functional constituency in LEGCO. Cronyism has seemingly been evident in the administration’s affirmative action on pedigree in statutory committee appointments. Hegemony has been seen everywhere, even without walking into PARK’N Shop, Watsons and other stores…. Corporatism, cronyism and hegemony are not capitalism. Likewise, unbridled capitalism is not capitalism per se. The free market, fair competition, and, more importantly, an impartial and bipartisan administration that regulates commercial activities, are the real essence of capitalism.


Regulatory Regime

Article 5 of the Basic Law also states that “Hong Kong maintains a free and open market economy with a free flow of capital, goods, intangible assets, and a freely convertible currency. People's lifestyle remains the same as before.” Gordon Gekko said “greed is good. Greed breeds energy, power and love and it progresses human development”. I would say, “the free market of Ideas and capital brings the entrepreneurship of opinions and the betterment of livelihood.” HK people, including the pseudo-socialists, readily accept that the market system is the best mechanism devised for creating wealth and innovation, and thus, have never thought of rolling back capitalism. Moreover, I trust that the Hon. Wong Yuk-man of the LSD would also concur. At the other end of the spectrum, in his 1859 essay On Liberty, John Stuart Mill argues that free speech is crucial to the pursuit of truth, because discussion of different opinions serves to challenge and clarify beliefs. As in an economic free market, competition gives rise to challenges to the status quo and breeds innovation. What the state should do is to regulate the market for the sake of fair competition and avoiding monopoly, to legislate against selling goods that are unsafe or non-compliant, and to legislate against goods-related assertions or manifestations by words or conduct that do not accord with the facts. An efficient, effective and responsible regulatory regime would also ban insider trading in the market. Hong Kong people do not expect the state to be a “nanny state” that takes over aspects of our private lives such as by helping those cannot afford to purchase property and to set up a family, or by banning chewing gum and fellatio.

We don’t hate the rich and the powerful; rather, if hatred exists, unbridled capitalism, cronyism, corporatism and hegemony are the real targets.

(SCMP 07 October 2010)

2010年10月4日星期一

Sub-sovereignty is a necessary evil

If the 1999 Right of Abode case was the first debate on the autonomy of the HKSAR, the current debate is the second. This time, the discussion touches upon the external autonomy of the SAR.


Realpolitik Operation of International Law

Public international law operates on the basis of Darwinist realpolitik. No matter how vehement the protestations of idealists over the centuries, international law is a “winner takes all” and “first speaker” legal arena. Stephen Krasner even went as far as to comment that sovereignty is an “organized hypocrisy” in describing the oxymoronic nature of the concept in the post-Westphalian era. The USSR, in the course of negotiating with the US on founding membership of the UN, requested that all 15 Soviet Republics become member states. With the threat of its counterpart doing the same, Stalin withheld his much fantasized idea. Therefore, it was quite comical when it came to the author’s attention that someone had used “sovereignty” to criticize his own countrymen, whose late Qing ancestors were traumatized by the same pretext in the 1844 Opium War and the 1900 Boxer Rising. Genuine patriots should be more sensitive with this taboo.

Celestial Court under Heaven

Equality has never been our world view. Whether justified or not, China has claimed to be the celestial court under heaven. John Schrecher observed that the term “sovereignty” had mostly been used when the Chinese state was weak (i.e. in 1909 - 2 years before the Republican revolution). States have been flexible with the operation of “Equality” (“Compatibility”). if not, there would have been some faux pas. Deng Xiaoping was the vice-premier of China when he visited the US in 1979, ten years later, Comrade Deng, in his civil capacity, met General Secretary Gorbachev in Beijing. Also, it was not the GOP chairman met Secretary Gorbachev in the 1986 Reykjavík Summit. Nor would Colonel Gadaffi of Libya have been greeted by military officers when he paid foreign visits. Should the principle of equality be enforced in such a stringent manner that Manila would have no compatible counterpart to entertain calls from Sir Donald Tsang, modern diplomacy would not be able to operate day in and day out. At the end of the day, international politics is built on the realist calculation of power, and thus respect.

Domestic Intervention

In recent years, the Chinese government has become ever more sparing in its use of the term “sovereignty” (Charlson 2005). If we were obliged to adopt a doctrinal analysis of international law, one would find that domestic affairs are not totally immune from outside forces. In Nicaragua v United States of America ( [1986] ICJ Reports 14), the ICJ laid down four major principles reflecting the view that foreign governments cannot intervene in the home state’s choice of political, economic, social and cultural institutions, or in its foreign policy making. Operationally, one state must not seek to intervene in another state’s political affairs, nor support separatist movements and topple other states. There are reasons for intervention, such as enforcing international treaties, intervening on humanitarian grounds, protecting life and property, and preserving the state’s reputation. In any event, provided it does not violate Article 4 of Chapter 2 of the UN Charter — which stipulates the principles of non-violence, no threat of force and no compromise of local jurisdictional powers — intervention may be legal. In such a case, helping the local legal enforcement authorities to investigate and adopting other necessary means to protect lives and preserve the dignity of a state are clearly legal.

Delegation of Powers

However, these propositions all depend on whether (1) the HKSAR can undertake the aforementioned types of state behaviour on behalf of its sovereign, i.e. the PRC; (2) the HKSAR’s action falls within the scope of its delegated powers in accordance with the State Constitution and the Basic Law; (3) ultra vires action taken by the HKSAR (in this case, calling Arroyo without proper authorization from the CPG) can be ratified by the CPG on an ex post basis (otherwise, it would still be unconstitutional).

Furthermore, which party can ratify such action? According to Articles 17 and 18 of the PRC Legislation Law, the NPC is entitled to repeal and amend local laws, self-autonomy ordinances, and unilateral ordinances of local provinces and regions. This legislation does not cover executive action taken by local governments, nor is it applicable in HK. Neither the Constitution nor the PRC Legislation Law includes any specific provisions on this issue. If the SC were to complain, Audrey Eu may have to seek a remedy from the Supreme People’s Court by requesting that it issue a judicial interpretation on this case. Should we seek approval from the President of the PRC? After all, he represents the state in its activities. Alternatively, should we look to the NPCSC — the state’s highest power organ, constitutionally— or turn to the State Council, which issued and offered the appointment letter to CH and Yam-kuen?

If one adopts the principle of proportionality or reasonableness, one may very possibly accept that the President of the PRC can call the president of the US directly, though the State Constitution only stipulates the “performing state activity” provision.

As for Article 13 of the Basic Law and the possible application of Article 151, this really depends on whether the CPG adopts a hands-off or hands-on management style. There would be no question of constitutionality should the CPG be obliged to take care of all details, as this would imply that Yam-kuen has no power to call, whether or not the call is answered, because it is ultra vires all along. In that case, the CPG may have to consider whether or not to ratify Yam-kuen’s ultra vires action. Should we accept that delegated foreign-related behaviour is subject to ex ante CPG approval, ex post ratification may be the only remedy capable of redressing the illegality. An example is the PRC Ethnic Autonomous Region Law, which empowers the regional government to partially enforce or cease enforcing the CPG’s directives after seeking the superior organ’s ex ante approval.

Another example of this is the US War Powers Act. The US President is the commander in chief and the power to declare war rests with Congress. According to this Act passed in 1973, the president can send troops after the US has been attacked or is under serious threat of force. The president is required to inform Congress within 48 hours, and if the proposed action is not endorsed by the Hill, the president must withdraw forces within 60 days.

Possible Application of the Common Law Principle

Had the court been able to adjudicate the case and adopt a judicial activism approach, “Callingate” would have been constitutional. This prediction is based on the premise of Minister of Home Affairs v Fisher ([1980] AC 319), which held that our mini-constitution should be interpreted in a generous and purposive manner. Yet this case merely involved individual liberty and did not touch upon executive action per se. In the case of Ma Wai Kwan, J Patrick Chan stated that the principle laid down in Attorney General of the Gambia v Jobe ([1984] AC 689) and R v Sin Yau-ming ([1992]1 HKCLR 127) can be adopted to interpret the Basic Law. The Court of Final Appeal clearly stated in the Ng Ka Ling case that the Basic Law is a “living document” aimed at coping with changing circumstances. The courts must therefore avoid interpreting the law in a literal, technical or parochial manner. Should we have the luxury of the local courts adjudicating the issue, “Callingate” would not be found to have contravened Articles 13 and 151 of the Basic Law. Nonetheless, the foregoing discussion merely represents the author’s hypothetical projection which will not be tested in practice.

The Politics of Law

From the political perspective, Beijing would be best advised to act generously by allowing the demoralized chief executive to make the call when Hong Kong’s “subjects” are under threat overseas. Legally speaking, to transplant the agency law principle of commercial law, Yam-kuen was the agent of necessity who did the necessary thing (though it was ultra vires per se) in the case of absolute imminence, albeit without proper authorization from Beijing. Even under such circumstances, the court would perceive it as a legal and reasonable delegation and exercise of power under the doctrine of necessitous intervention.

In conclusion, “Callingate” was reasonable, proportionate and necessary.

《哈佛看中國———經濟與社會卷》

坦白說,買《哈佛看中國———經濟與社會卷》一書,心裏確實有點不踏實。不踏實在於看一班遠在美國西岸在象牙塔幹研究的書生論政,當然在下都算是「掹車邊」的讀書人,仍總是有「一日學識胡兒語、站在城頭罵漢人」之感。

讀這本書之前,總想哈佛大學之名如雷貫耳,Jeffery Saich教授當年為後蘇聯的俄羅斯經濟開出「大震盪」一劑猛藥,會否和此書各位專家學者一樣呢?答案是:否。看完這本書,你可能發覺他們比我們中國人,更關注中國的經濟與社會的整體發展。

與 JeffreySaich的「大震盪」藥方不同,哈佛大學研究中國經濟與社會的學者,似乎更相信通過政府解決經濟和社會問題。譬如︰珀金斯教授認為中國城市化的水平仍然稍為偏低,是因為人為控制的戶口制度問題,要長遠解決、減輕貧富差距的問題要通過累進稅制再分配收入。當然這個政策,內地新左派甚或非新左派的經濟學家都已經提過,不過關鍵是珀金斯教授是老外且是哈大教授!

分析內地社會經濟發展

反而屬於中國研究較為權威的懷默霆教授,就沒有其他經濟學教授、社會政策的研究者來的悲天憫人、走在社會的前綫了。可能因為本身是社會學家,懷教授看中國有幾分宿命主義、又有幾分相對主義。他說中國連續三十年取得百分之九點八的經濟增長,成功避過了重複蘇聯的命運,表明沒有「放諸四海皆準的發展體系」,又指市場化改革把農民二解放,生活只會更好。天呀,這個懷教授……「壞」書生曾經寫過文革有好東西,好在讓無產階級-工人、農民充權。好一個充權,在下就衝擊一下你這個壞「鬼」書生。

其他的經濟、金融專家,拯救了我對哈佛大學預期的失調。哈佛商學院副院長談中國的空氣、水源問題、血汗工廠,世界銀行中國代表處首席代表談社會穩定、公共健康、犯罪控制來實現經濟的均衡發展。

讀畢這本書,誰敢再說「逢商都奸」!

星島日報 2010-09-29

摘自香港電台第一台《中國點點點》之「好書在手」環節,由Roundtable Pioneers成員介紹內地出版的書籍,從中帶出相關的中國國情與發展概況。節目逢周一至周五下午三時至四時半播出;「好書在手」環節逢周四播出。