2010年10月9日星期六

中日結盟?可惜人類宿醉的時候往往比清醒的時候長得多.....








中日結盟?﹗

大家沒有眼花中國和日本是應該結盟,從東亞戰略及地緣政治﹑歷史問題﹑文化﹑意識形態等客觀因素,都說明北京和東京是天生的政治﹑經濟﹑軍事的好搭擋。在冷戰已經結束近廿年﹑二次大戰結束近四分三個世紀,兩國的交戰歷史不應該成為兩個東亞大國在廿一世紀謀求長遠發展的羈絆。

東亞戰略及地緣政治

中華民族在十八世紀開始,外敵主要是海上而來,從倭寇﹑英人﹑八國聯軍﹑以至日本皇軍甚至現時的美國。日本﹑韓國﹑台灣都是中國近代外敵進入中國內陸的不沉航空母艦。在現時的戰略格局,要中部崛起﹑西部開發,一定要穩住東部沿海地區,日韓台海域再加上南海緊張,對中國海防有沉重負擔。就算中國國庫和老百姓能承擔三支航空母艦群,拱衛京津﹑滬寧﹑港地區,要守的代價同效益似乎不成比例,莫講還要兼顧台灣﹑東海﹑南沙﹑西沙。在現時美國海軍再加上日本的海空實力,藍海戰略幾成泡影,代價亦相當大。當年李鴻章海防派和左宗棠的彊防派的辯論,結果是中法﹑中日海戰,大清大敗而回,反觀彊防派起碼穩住了中國的大後方﹑打壓了沙俄﹑英國對彊藏的野心,有分析指今日中國版圖仍然是一張塊海棠葉,中國人要多謝左宗棠。況且,從現實政治出發,東亞周邊的真正朋友,大家心知肚明,平壤有反骨﹑河內對著幹﹑日韓菲有美國撐腰﹑還有不知何時統一的台灣地區。

歷史問題

歷史問題指大國崛起的歷史,Paul Kennedy看大國崛起分析了荷蘭﹑英國衰亡,是沒有龐大的腹地讓國家經濟以至軍事進一步發展,龐大的國土讓國家有軍事布局有迴旋餘地,看觀抗日時國民政府在重慶苟延殘喘,亦可以敗部復活。再者,近百年的西方稱霸的歷史,更說明中日無條件不結盟,Andrew Roberts 分析英語世界下的美英結盟的任何一場戰爭,從未輸過,這個是實證。歷史亦證明國際政治沒有永遠敵人,最好的例子是美英;英國是美國前宗主國,唯一曾經佔領華盛頓﹑火燒國會﹑白宮既不是德國人﹑日本人或者蘇聯人,而是英國人(1814),兩國理應有深仇大恨,但是經過近一世紀的和解,經歷一戰﹑二戰﹑冷戰﹑兩次伊戰﹑反恐,還有其他看不到的政經﹑外交﹑情報的合作,美英仇人成為鐵桿子拍檔。現時英國不可以沒有美國(看觀1952年蘇伊士運河危機,沒有美國,英法單獨行動即時不行)。同樣,英法亦有類似的所謂歷史問題,經過不只一個世紀,而是差不多上千年的鬥爭(聖女貞德﹑拿破崙的例子可以隨手沾來),在1904年兩國簽訂友好協議,在一戰﹑二戰站在勝利的一方。

文化﹑意識形態

英國不可以沒有美國,日本不可以沒有中國(中國可以沒有日本這個朋友,但交惡則有老美支持,美國擔心的是中日大和解)。文化和意識形態上,中日其實都是東亞中心腹地起源(The East Asian Heartland)的文化,Lucian Pye指大家都是家長權威模式﹑Samuel Huntington指同屬泛儒家文明。舉一個實例,一九八九年六四後,西方向中國大陸實施制裁,大家對比一下日本和澳洲﹑日本和法國對中國實施的制裁力度和措施,大家就知道為什麼毛主席喜歡日本人。再者,從現今中國政府統治精英的想法,日本正是偽民主的良好示範,戰犯做首相﹑五五體制﹑反對派長期在野,不正合口味嗎?在最少的機會成本下達至政治民主化。在理性分析下中日應該結盟,可惜人類宿醉的時候往往比清醒的時候長得多。

(Singtao 10 October 2010)

2010年10月7日星期四

You can't handle the truth; China CAN!

“You can't handle the truth."
        Colonel Nathan in “A Few Good Man”

如果你不能夠承受真相,就不要問。當今的中國,有計﹗

2009年底一宗群眾事件,雲南省委宣傳部副部長伍皓把全國的眼球吸引到雲南。伍皓主動上網答覆網民,省委宣傳部更下發了一個通知,禁止給群眾貼上一向慣用的“不明真相”“別有用心”等標籤。類似的詞在香港七一的時候,我們都聽過。

這些辭彙給人官本位的感覺,視群眾為矛盾(希望仍然是人民內部矛盾吧)﹗。雲南省委宣傳部進一步透過建立網絡新聞發言人和媒體義務監督員等舉措,伍皓又以宣傳部官員的身份,施行“新聞新政”,嘗試推動黨和政府的信息公開與透明讚。這些努力結果如何﹖先看看這宗群眾事件的來龍去脈。

二零零九年八月二十六日,雲南省陸良縣一煤礦在施工過程中與當地村民群眾發生衝突,八名村民、三名煤礦企業員工和七名公安警在衝突中受傷住院,十一輛警車被毀。事件發生後,縣委、縣政府立即啟動突發事件應急預案,處理村民問題。群眾提出的問題中,大部份得到解決。針對群眾要求每人每月補償六百元生活補助和每株莊稼五元賠償的訴求,

內地評論指陸良案例”也許會成為政府應付群體性事件的教材案例。

以民為本的執政理念,轉變了政府在處置群體性事件的慣性思維,但問題是人高皇帝遠的地方政府會否執行從來都是中國政府的結。主觀希望中國政府在處理,群眾事件會認同群眾的大部分訴求都是合理。

回說因事件”曝”得大名的伍皓,今年四月廿二日在北京人民大學演講時被學生扔總值三十大元的五毛錢紙幣。中國的進步總令人有追不上的感,這次事件,令我再次感到中國真的強大了,不是因為了國庫多了美債﹑日債,而是連我國都有Spin Doctor和敢說不的類社民連的大學生。國家真的變了。

(RTHK 07 Oct 2010/ Singtao)

Greed is Good

If Hong Kong were able to hold a referendum on the HK Basic Law,, Article 5 would be passed straight away and unanimously. Recent debates on whether Hong Kong society at large hates the wealthy (e.g. land developers) and powerful (e.g. senior officials) and the values of the late 80s, as well as the so-called “Central Value (Chungwan)”, are off the mark and out of focus. People have alleged that such debates were the result of the League of Social Democrats (LSD) and other fledgling streams of leftist ideas. Both the observation and the analysis are inaccurate. First, the LSD does not have the clout to direct such trends. Second, HK people at large are still emotionally attached to capitalist ideas and the free market. So what do we actually care about?


Capitalist System and Way of Life

Article 5 of the HK Basic Law provides that the capitalist system and the way of life shall remain unchanged. What is capitalism? Or, what is NOT capitalism? When one particular group of economic elites gain crucial advantages, become too successful, and begin to collude with one another instead of competing, capitalism can easily turn into corporatism, or to use a more progressive term, cronyism, or should we wish to use neo-Marxist terminology, hegemony. No one doubts that HK is heading in such a direction. The corporatist setting has been manifested in the parochial installation of a functional constituency in LEGCO. Cronyism has seemingly been evident in the administration’s affirmative action on pedigree in statutory committee appointments. Hegemony has been seen everywhere, even without walking into PARK’N Shop, Watsons and other stores…. Corporatism, cronyism and hegemony are not capitalism. Likewise, unbridled capitalism is not capitalism per se. The free market, fair competition, and, more importantly, an impartial and bipartisan administration that regulates commercial activities, are the real essence of capitalism.


Regulatory Regime

Article 5 of the Basic Law also states that “Hong Kong maintains a free and open market economy with a free flow of capital, goods, intangible assets, and a freely convertible currency. People's lifestyle remains the same as before.” Gordon Gekko said “greed is good. Greed breeds energy, power and love and it progresses human development”. I would say, “the free market of Ideas and capital brings the entrepreneurship of opinions and the betterment of livelihood.” HK people, including the pseudo-socialists, readily accept that the market system is the best mechanism devised for creating wealth and innovation, and thus, have never thought of rolling back capitalism. Moreover, I trust that the Hon. Wong Yuk-man of the LSD would also concur. At the other end of the spectrum, in his 1859 essay On Liberty, John Stuart Mill argues that free speech is crucial to the pursuit of truth, because discussion of different opinions serves to challenge and clarify beliefs. As in an economic free market, competition gives rise to challenges to the status quo and breeds innovation. What the state should do is to regulate the market for the sake of fair competition and avoiding monopoly, to legislate against selling goods that are unsafe or non-compliant, and to legislate against goods-related assertions or manifestations by words or conduct that do not accord with the facts. An efficient, effective and responsible regulatory regime would also ban insider trading in the market. Hong Kong people do not expect the state to be a “nanny state” that takes over aspects of our private lives such as by helping those cannot afford to purchase property and to set up a family, or by banning chewing gum and fellatio.

We don’t hate the rich and the powerful; rather, if hatred exists, unbridled capitalism, cronyism, corporatism and hegemony are the real targets.

(SCMP 07 October 2010)